Fire Risk Map

This is Part IV in a series of articles on Wildfires in the desert region of Gold Butte in North Eastern Clark County, NV. 

To read Part I click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/06/the-why-through-where.html

To read Part II click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/06/defining-study-area-gold-butte-wildfires.html

To read Part III click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/07/spatial-analysis-sifting-statistics.html

To read Part IV click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/07/details-depicted-doing-analysis.html

Fire Risk Indicator

The goal of this research was to assess the Gold Butte region for risk of fire. To create this model, I used geospatial data available on the internet from various government agencies, to create a model to calculate risk. I used the fire perimeter data available from the BLM’s website to create my sample area. I used Soil, Geology, Landform, and two different vegetation datasets to analyze the area within Gold Butte that has already experienced a wild fire event to look for clues as to why the fire burned where it did.  

After analyzing the data, I found there were strong colorations between the data and sample area that helped determine why did the fire burn where it did. After these indicators had been determined I developed model to classify the entire study area (Gold Butte region). The results of this model are as follows:

I created a ranking hierarchy that ranged from 1 to 15 with 1 being the lowest risk and 15 being the highest risk of fire.

Classification by Acreage:

1: 73,997.69

2: 48,133.22

3: 28,132.37

4: 31,386.28

5: 13,055.05

6: 16,103.41

7: 12,518.14

8: 38,121.84

9: 24,185.72

10: 14,517.97

11: 18,885.54

12: 37,333.26

13: 16,801.13

14: 36,380.47

15: 24,161.95

Acreage Statistics:

Count:  15

Minimum:           12518.147206

Maximum:          73997.693831

Sum:      433714.117105

Mean:   28914.274474

Standard Deviation:        15924.771133

With this information a person could then more easily determine which area were most at risk for a fire event and determine how to mitigate or better manage those risks. I plan to document the areas that are at most risk which haven’t burned yet so in case of a fire event the pre-fire landscape will be adequately documented.

  

This is not the end of this project but just another stepping stone to more research and better understanding of wild fires in a desert ecosystem. One interesting byproduct of this study has been to look more closely at the areas that are marked high risk and within close proximity to the fire boundary but yet didn’t burn. In many instances it is plainly clear the role that roads play as natural fire breaks to prevent the fire from spreading even farther within the desert ecosystem. I will continue to post data and information about my findings in researching the Gold Butte region…

Details Depicted - Doing the Analysis

This is Part IV in a series of articles on Wildfires in the desert region of Gold Butte in North Eastern Clark County, NV. 

To read Part II click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/06/the-why-through-where.html

To read Part II click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/06/defining-study-area-gold-butte-wildfires.html

To read Part III click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/07/spatial-analysis-sifting-statistics.html

In this step of the research, I am delving into the details. With the following graphics I try to depict how I performed the analysis to create the risk index. In the previous step (Step III) I calculated the specific value for each type we are researching. In this step I am applying those values to a grid that I created within the area of interest. The following is how I apply those values:

The next step is to create the map that depicts all these values which represent the potential risk an area has to fire.

Spatial Analysis - Sifting Statistics

This is Part III in a series of articles on Wildfires in the desert region of Gold Butte in North Eastern Clark County, NV. To read Part II click the following link: Defining the Study Area:

http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/06/defining-study-area-gold-butte-wildfires.html

In the field of Spatial Analysis and Statistics you use geographic data, which is data that has a fixed location within the real world, to find trends and correlations between the data. The goal of my fire analysis project is to find try and find correlations between the fire area and the rest of the gold butte region to create a risk index to identify the most at risk areas in Gold Butte that haven’t yet burned but are likely to burn. Once this is complete I will then document those areas current habitat for future restoration plans. I will also look for ways to protect these desert ecosystems from the devastating consequences of a wildfire event.

In step 1 I defined the sampling area as the boundary of the Forks and Tramp fire within the Gold Butte Region and presented the summary five different datasets including soil, geology, vegetation types and landforms or slope classifications within the burned area (sample).

 In step 2 I defined the study area to which I would scale my analysis to. I then presented the summary results of the same datasets that I presented for the sample area in step 1.

In Step 3 I am looking for recurring patterns and relationships between the burned area and the total study area. In this step I am looking for scale invariance or the lack of scale invariance to try and see if I can determine why the fire burned where it did through analyzing the results of both step 1 and step 2.

For example, if all of the data from the sample area scaled perfectly to the study area, all that it would tell me is that this fire burned consistent with the statistical distribution across the total study area.  If 30 percent of the study area was made up of creosote and 30 percent of the burn area was also creosote the only inference that could be made is that the fire burned consistent with the overall makeup of the study area. However if 30 percent of the study area was made up of creosote but 5 percent of the burn area consisted of creosote then we could deduce that the creosote vegetation is not as susceptible to fire.  The following is the breakdown of the previously defined data:

Landform (Slope Classifications)

Looking at the total Landform distribution across the entire study area you can see that the gently sloping ridges and hills make up the majority of the study area. However that same classification only makes up 20% of the burn area meaning that this landform classification is not as susceptible to fire as other types.  The landform types that have the smallest percent of the total study area but the largest percentage of the burn area are the indicators of the most susceptible landform types:

·         very dry steep slopes

·         very moist steep slopes

·         hot aspect scarps, cliffs, canyons

·         cool aspect scarps, cliffs, canyons

Geologic Types

Again here I am looking for the geologic types that have the smallest percent of the total study area but the largest percentage of the burn area.  The most susceptible geologic types:

·         very dry steep slopes

·         very moist steep slopes

·         hot aspect scarps, cliffs, canyons

·         cool aspect scarps, cliffs, canyons

Soil Types

After analyzing the soil types the indicators are not as significant as other data is at showing correlation however there are still relationships that exist that will help add to the modeling. Again I am looking for the types that have the smallest percent of the total study area but the largest percentage of the burn area.  The most susceptible soil types are:

·         Water (this is the land that has been exposed by the drop in lake water levels)

·         lithic torriorthents-rock outcrop-lithic and deep calciorthids

·         deep and shallow paleorthids-calciorthids-haplargids

Vegetation Types

Again I am looking for the types that have the smallest percent of the total study area but the largest percentage of the burn area.  The most susceptible Vegetation types are:

·         Artemisia tridentata ssp. (tridentata, wyomingensis) – This type was only found in burn area

·         Inter-Mountain Basins Montane Sagebrush Steppe

·         Great Basin Pinyon-Juniper Woodland

·         Inter-Mountain Basins Big Sagebrush Shrubland

·         Agriculture-Cultivated Crops and Irrigated Agriculture

·         Mojave Mid-Elevation Mixed Desert Scrub

Vegetation 2

Again I am looking for the types that have the smallest percent of the total study area but the largest percentage of the burn area.  The most susceptible Vegetation types are:

·         Juniper II

·         Mountain shrub

·         Blackbrush

Defining the Study Area -- Gold Butte Wildfires

This is Part II in a series of articles on Wildfires in the desert region of Gold Butte in North Eastern Clark County, NV. To read Part I click the following link: The Why Through Where http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2014/06/the-why-through-where.html

Defining the Study Area -- Gold Butte Wildfires Step II

The next step in my project to better understand the nature of wildfires in the Gold Butte region, I need to define the study area. One of the goals of this project is to better understand the relationships between the natural occurring phenomena, biological influences, and abiotic features that come together to create the landscape or ecosystem.

Over the years, Gold Butte has been expanded to encompass the entire region east of Virgin River to the Nevada\Arizona state line and down to Lake Mead to form the southern border. The Virgin River acts as both the Northern and Western border. This area works out to be just under half a million acres. With such a large area, coupled with a good understanding of the landscape, I knew I needed to modify the study area down to more of just the desert ecosystem so as to not distort my model. While most people would probably classify the whole region as a desert, our understanding can change when viewed more closely. When you get up close to the region you notice there are different subsystems within the larger system.

My case in point is the Virgin Mountain Range. If you take just the area I talked about above, which I will refer to as the Gold Butte region, and look at different factors such as elevation, average rain fall, vegetation and soil types, you can clearly see that there are many smaller ecosystems within the larger system. I also found other scientific data (Omernik http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions.htm ) that classifies ecosystems, where they also classified the Virgin Mountain Range to be a different ecosystem in relation to the rest of the Gold Butte region. The majority of the Gold Butte region falls within the Mojave Basin and Range system while the Virgin Mountain range is part of the Arizona/New Mexico Plateau region.

After analyzing the data I was able to define my study area so that I could create the best model possible. The total size of my study area works out to be 433,714 acres.

The next step is to run analysis on the same data that I did in step one but for the whole area of interest. This will then allow me to compare the results of the burn area against the whole study area and then find trends and spatial correlations between  all the data. 

The Why Through Where

Where the Fire Burns, Sifting Through the Data

The occurrence of wildfires on our public lands is an ever increasing threat.  Generally when we think of a wildfire the scene of a heavily timbered mountain landscape comes to mind, however today wildfires are reaching father into previously unaffected ecosystems including our own desert backyard.

According to the BLM’s records, prior to 2005, there is no documented occurrence of a wildfire in the Gold Butte region. In June of 2005, following heavy spring rains, there was a large wildfire in the Gold Butte region started by a lightning strike.

In my goal to implement better community stewardship of our public lands, I am working to better understand the wildfire events that have occurred in the Gold Butte region. I do this in the possibility of better management, from better understanding, of our desert landscape.  Through a better understanding of our environment, we can better manage the devastating effects of another wildfire event on the desert ecosystem.

My goal is to build a model that will create a risk index for the Gold Butte region to predict the likelihood of where the next fire will start and spread. The first step in building this model is to understand the landscape of the area that has previously burned. I chose for my area of interest the Fork and Tramp fires. The BLM provides the geospatial data for the location of the burn areas.

The data that I was able to locate on the web for this area included elevation, vegetation, soils, geology, landforms, average rainfall by year, intermittent washes and roads.  The next step is to clip all of this data to the perimeter of the burn area. After the data is clipped to the boundary of the fire I performed spatial analysis to calculate the percent area of each type of feature within the data to see if there is any correlation as to why the fire burned in the area that it did.  The following are some of the results that I found.

Geology

LandForm

 

 Soil

Vegetation

There were two different vegetation datasets that I found so i used both to try and create the best model that I could. 

Vegetation II

There will be more information and data coming...

Heller Discourages Gold Butte as a National Monument

Heller Discourages President from Using Executive Powers to Designate Gold Butte as a National Monument

Dear Mr. President:

I write to you to respectfully express my concern with the enclosed request from a member of the Nevada Congressional Delegation encouraging you to use your authority under the American Antiquities Act of 1906 to designate the Gold Butte area of Southern Nevada as a national monument.  As a Senator from Nevada who represents the affected area, unlike my colleague who placed this request, I am extremely concerned about the impact a unilateral designation will have on my state.  I am writing to you to express my strong opposition to the use of the Antiquities Act authority in my state, and to underscore the importance of a grassroots-driven, public, and transparent Congressionally-approved process for public lands designations.

Gold Butte is a natural treasure and a draw for tourism in southern Nevada. While nearly everyone agrees that conservation measures in the area are important so future generations can camp, hike, hunt, and enjoy the cultural resources there, there are strong differences of opinion among my constituents on the policies that can accomplish that goal. When it comes to public lands legislation, I believe local opinion and buy-in within the community is extremely important. At this point, there is significant opposition to the current legislative proposal before the 113^th Congress, but the concerns of those opposed ought to be resolved via the Congressional legislative process.  The use of your authority under the Antiquities Act would not serve the area well and would escalate anger and frustrations with the Department of the Interior government in a region of our state where tensions are already presently high.

Moreover, the Nevada Delegation has a strong tradition of working in a bipartisan matter to resolve issues pertaining to the management of our public lands and of advancing legislation that protects our environmentally sensitive areas while facilitating sustainable economic development in our communities.  As you may know, over 85 percent of the lands within our state are administered by the federal government.  As a result, our Congressional Delegation is frequently approached by local elected officials, stakeholders, and other impacted individuals that we represent and are asked to work with them to develop legislation to improve public land management. 

In this Congress alone, our delegation has introduced over ten Nevada-specific public lands bills that have the support of the bipartisan members that represent the affected areas.  In each case, the details of those proposals were hashed out in an open and transparent process.  Accordingly, they all have garnered near unanimous support within the affected communities. 

These proposals include the Lyon County Economic Development and Conservation Act of 2013 (S.159), the Las Vegas Valley Public Land and Tule Springs Fossil Beds National Monument Act of 2013 (S.974), and the Pine Forest Range Recreation Enhancement Act of 2013 (S.342).  It is important to note that both the Senate and House of Representatives have both taken varying levels of legislative action on these conservation bills, and I am optimistic they will be sent to your desk for signature before the end of this Congress.  

In conclusion, I strongly urge you to abandon any proposal you are considering to make a land designation under the Antiquities Act in the State of Nevada.  New land designations ought to be considered in the open and public Congressional process so all parties, including those who support and oppose the measure, have an equal opportunity to voice their concerns.  I strongly believe that if any action is taken on this matter it should be by Congress reflecting the will of the affected local community.  I have always approached public lands issues in that manner while in Congress, and remain committed to advancing public lands legislation across my state via that important process.

Thank you for your attention and consideration of this important request. Please do not hesitate to contact my office with questions. 

Sincerely,

Dean Heller                                        

United States Senator              

cc:

Secretary of the Interior, Sally Jewell

Senator Harry Reid

Representative Dina Titus

Representative Mark Amodei

Representative Joe Heck

Representative Steven Horsford

Mischief Managed

Public lands management is no easy task. There is a multitude of people, all using and enjoying public lands in a variety of ways, and almost all believe it should be managed in a different way. There was a time when multiple-use was the mantra of management however today mutually-exclusive seems to be the means of management. Despite the disparity over the direction of our public lands there is one facet that all agree on. Vandalism is a gross offense. However, the course by which this offence is remedied is far from determined.

Recently there has been a case of vandalism at one of the graves of the Grand ol’ Men of Gold Butte. The grave of Arthur Coleman (1876-1958) was dug up and his remains stolen. The questions far outpace the answers in this case of vandalism that occurred on public lands.

There have been many who call for tighter regulation whenever these types of incidents take place. They call for more money, more police, more policy and less access. In 2010 there was an incident at the Red Rock NCA where a juvenile painted graffiti on one of the petroglyph sites. This happened in spite of the Red Rock NCA being the more heavily managed public land in Southern Nevada. I would estimate Red Rock NCA get the most spending of dollar per acre in the region. Despite this intense management vandalism still occurs. Obviously regulation and money is not going to fix this problem.  In 2010 I wrote an article titled Learning the Hard Way where I discuss some of these specific issues: 

"While many are using the recent actions of vandalism at Red Rock as testimony to rush Gold Butte’s status as an NCA, I would counter that this is plain and clear evidence of why it should not be rushed. If an area like Red Rock that has been protected for many years, is much smaller geographically, and has more intense management and available resources than Gold Butte, and it is still getting vandalized, maybe pointing the spot light on Gold Butte is not in Gold Butte’s best interest. Now is not the time to earmark Gold Butte for the bureaucratic brand." -- http://www.savegoldbutte.com/2010/12/learning-hard-way.html

If we are going to find a solution to the random acts of vandalism that occur on our public lands it will come from connecting people with our public lands and giving them a sense of belonging to their public lands. Alienating the up and coming generations from our public lands and closing off more and more acreage from their access will not cure but incur a negative consequence.

Local stewardship has been, and always will be the answer to the public lands management woes.

The grave of Arthur Coleman was restored by the local non-profit organization Partners-In-Conservation (PIC) who has a history of active participation in public lands policy and community involvement.

http://partners-in-conservation.blogspot.com/